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Domestic bourses end higher amidst volatility; value investing is the key…

Nifty ended the volatile week on positive note after 4 consecutive negative weekly close gaining 71 points or 0.77% at 8,262.35 after hitting the 17 weeks low of 7,997.15. The paints sector outperformed by 4.07% followed by finance and automobiles which gained by more than 3%. The Real Estate sectors was a major underperformer losing 6% followed by FMCG which lost 2.61%. In CNX Nifty stocks; Bank of Baroda, HeroMoto and SBI gained nearly 10% while DLF and HindUnilever lost 5.98% and 5.63% respectively. Commodities showed positive momentum where COMEX Gold rose by 3% to $1226 and Silver hits 14 weeks high gaining 6.8% at $17.568. INR appreciates against USD to 63.46 after price hits 20 months low of 64.28

Key developments

Wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation for April fell to a new low of -2.65 percent, the sixth successive month of deflating prices. The WPI reading for March was -2.33 percent. Given the weakness in industrial output and downtrend in inflation, expectations of a rate cut by the RBI at its June meet have risen

With the controversial land acquisition bill being referred to a joint parliamentary committee, government on Thursday said it would re-promulgate the related ordinance for the third time. Rural Development Minister Chaudhary Birender Singh said there were 13 legislations which are already out of the purview of the present 2013 Land Acquisition legislation and to include those we issued that ordinance and now for the continuation of that ordinance if we have to issue another fresh ordinance

Crude Oil

Oil slipped below $65 a barrel on Monday as signs that U.S. shale oil production was recovering after a recent price rally renewed concerns of a growing global supply glut. China's latest move to bolster its economy offset some of the losses as it raised hopes that the world's top energy consumer would help absorb supplies.

China overtook the United States as the world's top importer of crude oil for the first time in April, and its purchases are expected to remain strong despite a slowing economy, with far-reaching consequences for global oil and commodities markets. The soaring imports came as a surprise as growth in the world's second-largest economy was sputtering and its oil demand was expected to ease.

Oil prices will remain below the psychologically important $100-a-barrel mark until at least 2025, according to a draft report by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), seen by The Wall Street Journal. In its most optimistic scenario, OPEC, which represents 12 oil-producing countries, forecast that oil will sell for around $76 per barrel in 10 years' time, according to the report. However, it warned that crude oil could cost as little as $40 per barrel in 2025.

Global Market

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, indicating the jobs market was on solid footing even as the economy struggles to regain momentum after abruptly slowing in the first quarter. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 for the week ended May 9, the Labor Department said on Thursday, within a whisker of a 15-year low reached two weeks ago. US shares ended little changed on Friday, with the S&P 500 edging up to a record high for a second straight session after a ream of weak economic data. The S&P 500 gained 1.63 points, or 0.08 percent, to end at 2,122.73. That followed a more substantial 1.08 percent jump on Thursday that fueled speculation the benchmark index might trend higher after having oscillated in a range for much of the past three months. However, weak industrial output and consumer sentiment reports on Friday did little to instill confidence in investors about the economy's growth momentum. The major indices spent most of the day in the red. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 20.32 points, or 0.11 percent, to end at 18,272.56. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.50 points, or 0.05 percent, to 5,048.29. For the week, the Dow closed 0.4 percent higher, the S&P rose 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq added 0.9 percent.

Outlook

We believe that every fall in the prices of good quality stocks due to selling by FIIs is providing a good opportunity for domestic investors to get into these stocks. We are cautiously optimistic on Indian markets.

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"Forum Views" Magazine Published by Brokers Forum of India. (April 2014)
Your friendly advisor since 1986,
Ashoka Ajmera
  


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